Soft Landing in Sight: August 2023 Market Commentary Summary

Economic consensus has (grudgingly) accepted soft landing as the base case outcome and that the Fed has achieved its policy goals with no need for further rate hikes.

The Recession that Didn’t Come (So Far) – A Conversation with David Cervantes, Pinebrook Capital

In this episode, we discuss the economic and market environment with David Cervantes of Pinebrook Capital. David brings a broad market perspective having spent most of his career on Wall Street covering fixed income and cross-asset sales at Morgan Stanley, UBS, and JPMorgan. David now focuses on asset allocation and manages systematic trading strategies for his own private capital and is an active commentator on social media. He shares with us where and why the economic consensus got the U.S. recession call wrong and the implications for asset allocation positioning looking ahead.

The information, statements, comments, views, and opinions expressed or provided in this podcast are not necessarily those of 3D/L Capital Management, LLC (3D), and may not be current. 3D does not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information, statements, comments, views, or opinions contained in this podcast. 3D does not endorse any products or securities mentioned.

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Hike in July and Say Good-Bye: July 2023 Market Commentary Summary

Markets interpreted the aftermath of the July FOMC as the final rate hike for this cycle, cementing expectations that the Fed would start cutting rates as early as the 2nd quarter of 2024.

What If Nothing Breaks?

Does the Fed have enough fiscal gas left in the tank to let nature take its course, bringing down inflation without crashing the economy by curtailing excess demand through higher unemployment?

Pay Now, Grow Later: 2023 Q2 Market Commentary Summary

Outsized gains from a handful of stocks, namely mega-cap technology and consumer growth stocks, are driving the broader indices.

Out of Breadth: May 2023 Market Commentary Summary

Outsized gains from a handful of stocks, namely mega-cap technology and consumer growth stocks, are driving the broader indices.

Investing for the Future – A Conversation with Scott Helfstein, Global X ETFs

In this episode, we focus on thematic investing with Scott Helfstein, Head of Thematic Solutions at Global X ETFs. Scott brings a unique multi-faceted perspective to the thematic landscape having previously served as an analyst at the Federal Reserve, worked in investment banking, and taught international politics and policy at West Point Academy. We discuss the current macro environment as well as investment themes that have captured investor attention such as generative artificial intelligence and robotics.

The information, statements, comments, views, and opinions expressed or provided in this podcast are not necessarily those of 3D/L Capital Management, LLC (3D), and may not be current. 3D does not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information, statements, comments, views, or opinions contained in this podcast. 3D does not endorse any products or securities mentioned.

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Hit the Ceiling: April 2023 Market Commentary Summary

The metaphorical Wall of Worry is transforming into a “Ceiling” of sorts as the global economy may have hit multiple ceilings.

Investors Flee for the Safety of Long Duration Assets: 2023 Q1 Market Commentary Summary

The first quarter of 2023 is now in the books and can be somewhat bluntly characterized by two extremes in investor sentiment: extreme highs for long duration assets (technology stocks trading at high valuations, long-term maturity debt securities, precious metals such as gold) and extreme lows for everything else (value stocks, especially beaten-down bank stocks, small caps, cyclical commodities). Essentially, the first quarter of 2023 saw a reversal of 2022 which saw inflation fears driving investors to favor cyclical value stocks and commodities while reducing exposures to long-duration assets such as expensive growth stocks and long maturity debt carried at historically low interest rates. The first quarter saw investors flee for the safety of long duration assets, whether expensive growth technology stocks viewed as immune to recessionary pressures or long maturity fixed income in anticipation of deflationary forces that would compel global central banks to ease monetary policies.

This quarter’s backdrop for growth versus value investing could not have produced a greater dichotomy of distinctive odors; the sweet perfumy growth potential of generative artificial intelligence1 (and the semiconductor investments needed to power such initiatives) versus the noxious fumes of banks2 and insurance companies, whose balance sheets are overloaded with low interest-bearing assets, leaving them less able to compete for short-term capital that is fleeing for higher yielding money market funds and U.S. Treasury Bills. For the 1st quarter, technology growth stocks generally rallied more than 20% while regional bank stocks sold off more than 20%. It was truly a tale of two market fortunes this quarter.

So What Now? A Post-March FOMC Discussion with Ken Shinoda from DoubleLine

In this episode, we have the pleasure of speaking with Ken Shinoda, Chairman of the Structured Products Committee at DoubleLine and co-manager on the firm’s Total Return, Opportunistic Income, Income, Opportunistic MBS and Strategic MBS strategies. Ken will be sharing his thoughts on current Fed policy and its eventual effects on economic activity and inflation. He will also provide an update on the state of the securitized lending market covering autos, credit cards, and residential / commercial real estate.

The information, statements, comments, views, and opinions expressed or provided in this podcast are not necessarily those of 3D/L Capital Management, LLC (3D), and may not be current. 3D does not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information, statements, comments, views, or opinions contained in this podcast. 3D does not endorse any products or securities mentioned.

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